Probability Puzzle
I was recently introduced to the following puzzle by another developer (from Vertigo, in fact). This is actually a fairly well-known problem and you'll find write-ups about it on Wikipedia and elsewhere, but I'll omit links to those sources from this post to prevent some temptation to just click and see the answer (I'll post everything in a follow-up).
The Scenario
Imagine you are on a game show in which a great prize is hidden behind one of three doors. Behind one door lies a brand new car. Behind each of the other two, a goat. The host of the show has explained this to you, and asks you to select a door. You choose one and inform the host of your decision. He smiles and says "Let's see what you didn't win" and opens up one of the other doors, revealing a goat! Then he looks at you and says, "The car is still behind one of these two doors. If you'd like, I'll let you change your mind and switch which door you've selected. What do you say?"
Should you switch doors?
Is it in your best interest to switch doors, or does it matter? When commenting, if you already know this problem, please avoid posting any spoilers or links to write-ups. I'll publish a follow-up with all of that tomorrow.




Comments
Haacked said on 24 Sep 2008 at 1:47 PM
Heh heh. This is a fun problem because of all the discussion it raises. People's brains aren't wired for thinking in probabilities, so the answer is unintuitive. I posted a write-up of this problem and the "controversy" surrounding it a while back. haacked.com/.../monty-haul-and-
timheuer said on 24 Sep 2008 at 1:52 PM
problem featured in movie '21' :-)
Guy Ellis said on 24 Sep 2008 at 2:58 PM
I struggled with this problem several years ago before I finally agreed with the correct answer. Like mentioned in Phil's post about Monte Carlo simulations try and think about the outcome if you played the game 99 times using each of the two strategies.
Dave Ward said on 24 Sep 2008 at 3:22 PM
What made it click for me was the probability of having picked a goat originally. From there, it all falls in place.
Harsha said on 25 Sep 2008 at 2:46 AM
I am looking for a great prize. But we know we have a car and a goat to choose from. If Car is not my great prize, there is no need to go ahead with the game.